I expect an active weather pattern over the Deep South this weekend and much of next week.
A cold front moved thorough our area on Saturday. This front will wash out over south Mississippi tonight. With the front weakening, it won't take long for moisture to return. Some fog and low clouds are possible tonight. Lows around 50.
Yet another cold front will organize to our west on Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will warm us into the 70s on Sunday afternoon. Most of Sunday will be dry, but storms will develop during the evening hours.
Right now, I expect a fairly solid squall line to develop along the cold front Sunday evening. It's uncertain if any storms will form ahead of the cold front. But, if they do, they will have a good shot at becoming severe. The tornado potential would be higher in these type of storms, along with strong straight-line winds and golfball size hail.
Regardless of any storms ahead of the front, the squall line itself will likely have some sort of severe weather. This will mainly be the form of strong straight-line winds, but a tornado and some hail will also be possible.
Let's focus on what you can expect for your area...I'm going to break it down into three "zones". Follow along using the graphic attached to this story.
First, the Highway 82 corridor and points north (pink area)...those areas have the highest chance for severe weather, including strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) and straight-line winds in excess of 80mph. These areas are just north of our coverage area. If the system were to track a little further south than currently expected, this would potentially increase the chance for significant severe weather in our northern counties (Attala, Holmes, Sharkey and Humphreys). Right now I do not believe the system will take a route further south.
Next, the I-20 corridor/the bulk of central Mississippi (orange area)....this area will be a little removed from the strongest winds aloft, so the risk of strong tornadoes is less in this area. Still, several tornadoes could occur, along with large hail and strong straight-line winds in excess of 70mph.
Finally, in south Mississippi, along the Highway 84 corridor (maroon area), the overall severe weather risk is less, but not zero. In this area I'm mainly concerned with large hail and strong straight-line winds in excess of 60mph. I can't rule out an isolated tornado though.
So, in summary, the further north you live, the greater chance for you seeing severe weather. The strongest storms will be just north of our coverage area.
Looking over the newest data this evening, I believe the system may be a little slower to materialize over our area. It looks like the earliest storms will try to form will be around 7pm in western parts of our area. The bulk of the storms may not get going until after 9pm and continue through roughly 3am. Storms may linger in extreme southeast parts of our area til roughly 5am.
Keep in mind timing and the location of the strongest storms is subject to change as we're talking about a developing storm system. New data will come in Sunday morning. I'll, of course, be watching how the atmosphere changes through the day Sunday. Tune into our later newscasts for updates. Also, get instant updates by "liking" my Facebook page. Just click here. I'll be happy to answer your weather questions!
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