A few isolated showers and storms have developed in South Mississippi so far this afternoon, but that's it.
This system is progressing at a snails pace; even though temperatures have reached the 70s, the warm front remains along the gulf coast, and is moving very slowly to the north. This is a situation where storms can develop north of the warm front, but with a fairly weak lower level wind profile, and a layer of warm air several thousand feet off the ground, storm development will be limited over the next several hours.
A disturbance will rotate through after dark, which should be enough to kick off rain and storms. With the warm front and surface low remaining south of I-20, the greatest risk for severe storms will be over South Mississippi with heavy rain for points north. Given these circumstances, we'll also need to adjust the rain/storm time frame from 7 p.m. until 1:00 a.m. This is when the widespread rain and storms arrive, but a few isolated storms are certainly possible at any point this afternoon.
The primary severe threats still include large hail and damaging straight-line wind; just a reminder from this morning's post, even though large hail is possible within any storm that develops, we are not expecting a repeat of Monday's hail event!
We should expect improving conditions for Sunday as far as rain and storms are concerned, but a stretch of unseasonably cool weather begins. We will only reach the low 60's Sunday, then struggle to reach the mid 50's Monday and Tuesday, which is a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal for early Spring in Mississippi. In fact, we average middle/upper 50's during the dead of winter in January and early February!
Be sure to visit www.msnewsnow.com/weather for the latest webcast, radar, current conditions, and forecast graphics.
Friday, July 25 2014 9:13 PM EDT2014-07-26 01:13:57 GMT
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Friday, July 25 2014 3:19 PM EDT2014-07-25 19:19:10 GMT
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Thursday, July 24 2014 12:04 AM EDT2014-07-24 04:04:58 GMT
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